Many studies highlighted the vulnerability of people experiencing school-to-work transition (SWT). This is particularly true during turbulent times, such as economic crisis (Bradley and Devadason, 2008; L´opez B´oo, 2012; Watson, 2020; Woo and Yoon, 2010). As firms favour insiders and experienced candidates, the decrease in economic activity is particularly detrimental for young jobseekers (Forsythe, 2022). Consequently, periods of crisis are conducive to the emergence of precarious trajectories and growing social inequalities.

The COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented shock –at least in recent history– on our society. It affected lives in various domains: physical and mental health, leisure, employment. The economic activity fell drastically as well as job openings and searches (Goolsbee and Syverson, 2021; Kraenzlin et al., 2020). In this context, students leaving secondary vocational education and training (VET) might have been severely affected by the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and related measures.

Studying the consequences of this crisis is important in two respects. Foremost, this disruption may have consequences for the life courses of many people, potentially in the long run (Helbling and Sacchi, 2014). Identifying profiles of vulnerability is thus crucial to deter the long-term effects of this crisis. In addition, a better comprehension of these consequences is necessary to improve the responses that can be provided in the future when similar events occur.

This study aims to document the medium-term impact of COVID-19 measures on young people leaving Vocational Education and Training (VET). Particular attention is paid to identify whether new patterns of transition have emerged in the wake of COVID-19.

When direct transition to employment is made difficult by economic conditions, a coping mechanism is to remain longer in education (Lopez Boo, 2012; Watson, 2020). However, some school leavers might not be able to follow this route and enter in unemployment. This would lead to a polarisation among VET graduates.

There are several reasons for this. First, some sectors of the economy were more affected by the COVID-19 measures leading to an increased risk of unemployment (Blundell et al., 2020). Secondly, educational opportunities are not distributed evenly. Continuing education is easier in some fields of study than in others, the socio-demographic background fo pupils also plays a role in this context (Cortesi and Imdorf, 2013).

We use LABB (FSO, 2024), an exhaustive administrative database, to study the school-to-work transition trajectories of young individuals who got a VET diploma in Switzerland. We apply innovative methods to identify patterns of particularly unstable and atypical trajectories. To highlight the changes associated with the pandemic, three cohorts of VET graduates are compared. Pupils graduated in 2017 act as a control group for the 2019 and 2020 cohorts affected respectively during and since the beginning of their SWT.

Results show fewer direct transitions to employment, more precarious trajectories and more continuation of studies for the pandemic impacted cohorts. This confirms a polarisation among VET graduates during the pandemic. Our study further highlights that VET graduated in the service and primary sectors were more affected by the COVID-19 crisis, leading to precarious ransitions for students. In contrast, individuals in the health sector were protected from unemployment and were more likely to remain in education. In the meantime, convergence also occurs. The pandemic is associated with a decrease in the differences between linguistic regions and between genders. These results remind us that the VET system is highly heterogenous and so are the COVID-19 consequences on its graduates.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted apprentices in dual vocational and education training (VET). In training firms, where apprentices spend most of their time during training, the impacts of the pandemic were particularly challenging. For instance, for some apprentices, the working environment changed (e.g., home office), and others had to take on new tasks (e.g., vaccinating) or lacked social support (e.g., personalized feedback). Depending on how training firms and occupations were affected by the pandemic, apprentices experienced their environment differently. If and how strong aspects were perceived as disruptive, novel, and critical (Morgeson et al., 2015), the apprentice’s self- and external perception of their professional role could have changed.

Professional roles can be based on self-perception, the external definitions of others (Brooks-Yip, 2023), and interactions with the environment and the actions that follow (Blumer, 1980). Accordingly, apprentices are, on the one hand, seen as learners in training and are not equally responsible for the daily business as trained employees (Chan, 2019). On the other hand, depending on the sector, apprentices quickly take on day-to-day tasks that untrained workers would otherwise complete (Gehret et al., 2019).

Drawing on the symbolic interactionism theory, we assume that the meaning of interactions can be processed differently during a disruptive event such as COVID-19 (Blumer, 1980; Carter & Fuller, 2015). Disruptive events can change expectations or assumptions of oneself, leading to conflicting or ambiguous roles, e.g., due to a lack of communication, unclear responsibilities, or work overload (Levinson et al., 1965; Örtqvist & Wincent, 2006; Rizzo et al., 1970). Challenging working environments and perceived role changes could have additionally increased the propensity of premature contract terminations or the psychological stress of apprentices.

To study perceived changes in apprentices’ roles, we conducted 16 group interviews in Spring 2023 in Switzerland's French and German-speaking regions with approximately eight apprentices per interview. We interviewed apprentices from nine different training occupations, which were differently affected by the pandemic (home office, work overload, short-time work, marginal affectedness) and differed regarding their intellectual requirement profile. The apprentices graduated in the summer of 2023, making them the last cohort who experienced the whole pandemic during their apprenticeship. Additionally, we conducted 11 expert interviews with vocational trainers who worked as trainers before, during, and after the pandemic to supply insights into how trainers perceived apprentices’ roles. The interviews were coded and analyzed using codebook thematic analysis (Ando et al., 2014; Miles & Huberman, 1994; Roberts et al., 2019).

Results of the group interviews indicate that apprentices’ roles changed depending on how they, as learners, were affected by the pandemic. For example, apprentices who mainly experienced home office during COVID-19 either perceived themselves as students who were dependent on the instructions of others, or they felt they had to take charge of the situation and become more responsible employees. Therefore, apprentices in home office more often experienced role ambiguity. By contrast, apprentices with work overload more often experienced their role to switch depending on the situation. On the one hand, these apprentices perceived their role as vulnerable because they were shielded from specific tasks. On the other hand, work overload led to including apprentices in tasks for which they were not yet qualified. Apprentices who experienced work overload instead perceived conflicting roles.

Perceived changes in apprentices’ roles during the COVID-19 pandemic are determined by interactions with others that shape how apprentices saw themselves and how they felt their trainers defined them. This is generally true, yet the crisis of COVID-19 underlines this crucial and interactive relationship. The current study emphasizes the influence of crisis on the forming of professional roles of apprentices.

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected the economy and the labour market. It led to a decrease in the number of job vacancies and an increase in youth unemployment (SECO, 2021). Such economic downturns hit young people at the beginning of their careers particularly hard and may hamper their school-to-work transitions (Cockx & Ghirelli, 2016). Uncertainties about the economy can deter graduates from entering the labour market and encourage them to stay in education and invest in further training to postpone labour market entry and increase their future chances in the labour market (Sironi, 2018). In this paper, we are thus interested in _how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected recent graduates' transition into further education and whether we find differences between graduates from different education programs and regions depending on how affected they were by the pandemic_.

In this paper, we focus on graduates from dual vocational education and training (VET) in Switzerland because the choice between entering the labour market and continuing education is particularly important for them. Swiss VET graduates have several options to continue in education. Those with strong academic skills may earn a Federal Vocational Baccalaureate and/or enter a University of Applied Sciences. Alternatively, they may serve a second apprenticeship or enter a College of Higher Education. From a theoretical perspective, transition processes are a complex interplay between labour market opportunities, institutional structures, and individual characteristics (Schels & Wöhrer, 2022). To theorize school-to-work transitions, we use a rational choice approach (Breen & Goldthorpe, 1997; Erikson & Jonsson, 1996). We argue that VET graduates choose between further education or labour market entry based on a subjective analysis of perceived costs and benefits of each option, such as the probability of success, expected future earnings and employment opportunities, or status loss. Previous studies have shown that entering the labour market during times of crisis is particularly difficult and may have negative long-term impacts such as lower income, higher risk of unemployment and mismatch, and lower job satisfaction (Kahn, 2010). Graduating in times of crisis thus increases the costs of entering the labour market. In turn, it also increases the benefits of staying in education and improving own’s position in the labour queue (Sacchi et al., 2016). This may be particularly true for those with higher socio-economic status, who are generally more likely to invest and continue in education (Becker & Glauser, 2018).

We use longitudinal register data on educational trajectories of Swiss VET graduates (LABB data) to answer our research question. This administrative data contains information on educational enrolment in Switzerland and, for a subset of individuals, information on social background. We compare cohorts graduating from VET before the pandemic (2016-2019) with the ones during (2020-2021) the pandemic to recognize changes in the transition processes. We combine this data with our own data on the pandemic-related affectedness of occupations.

We use multivariate regressions to analyse our research question. Our main dependent variable is the probability of staying in education instead of entering the labour market. We distinguish between (i) the probability of entering a vocational baccalaureate school after graduation (FVB2), (ii) the probability of entering a University of Applied Sciences, and (iii) the probability of entering a College of Higher Education.

Results indicate that while the transition into further education remained relatively stable overall, developments differ between regions and occupations depending on how the pandemic affected the costs of staying in education or entering the labour market. For instance, in Zurich, more students enrolled in FVB2 school during the pandemic, most likely because mandatory entrance exams were abolished during the pandemic, decreasing the costs of entering FVB2 school.