Several studies have reflected the complexity and diversity of trajectories that students follow within the university system (Aparicio-Chueca et al., 2021; Troiano et al., 2024) but little attention has been paid to trajectories after system departure (Bäulke et al., 2022). This lack of information on transfer-out behaviours hampers the ability to discern real drop-out from transitions to other formal studies. In this respect, Vocational Education and Training (VET) is considered as an alternative pathway to obtain a post-secondary qualification (Heublein, 2014; Hossler et al., 2012; Tieben, 2024).

The decision to drop out is influenced by the existence and the availability of information of study alternatives (Braunstein et al., 2024). Yet, little is known about the moment when VET starts being considered as an option among first-year university students considering dropout. We present a exploratory study investigating what characteristics make first-year university students more prone to consider VET as a potential destination after dropout utilizing the psychological model of student retention (Bean & Eaton, 2001). This investigation is part of the research project “Assessment of risk factors and prevention of university dropout. Development of a good practice guide (ModAU-GBP)” led by the University of Oviedo with funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities [MCINN-23-PID2022-141290NB-I00] and EU funding on behalf of the Principality of Asturias [GRUPIN: ID2024/000713].

Methodically we have collected survey data from 1480 first-year students at the University of Oviedo at the beginning of the first semester of 2024-2025. The study presents a bivariate descriptive analysis of VET as a direction of dropout intention in students matriculated in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths) and non-STEM (Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences) majors, giving a first approximation of their association measures.

We find a significant and strong association between dropout intention and the consideration of VET as a potential destination (X2=208.151 , df=1, p<.001). As early as the beginning of the first semester, VET represents an alternative for almost half of first-year students reporting dropout intentions (44.9%) whereas this percentage drops to less than 10% among the rest of the sample. In case of dropout, STEM students are slighly more inclined to choose VET (16.7%) than their non-STEM counterparts (12,3%) (X2=5.926, df 1, p<.05). Additionally, STEM students indicate they would favour VET qualifications quite or strongly related with their current degree (68.2%) whereas less than half of non-STEM students would do so (38.8%) (X2 = 22.262 , df=1, p<.001). Among STEM students, the consideration of VET is significantly associated with lower university admission scores (U=21096.5, p<.001, r = .236).

We conclude that first-year students ponder VET as one of the potential destinations in case of dropout at a very early stage since enrolment. While dropout tends to be conceptualized as a decision-making process consisting of different phases (Bäulke et al, 2024), the results suggest dropout intention and the direction of dropout intention take form simultaneously. Results show this option is more popular among STEM students with lower previous academic achievement who also seem more akin to capitalise on the knowledge gained during university.

This study points to the need to acknowledge the value and revelance of VET (Hippach-Schneider et al., 2017) in mitigating the negative impact of university dropout. Further longitudinal studies will be needed to clarify if the consideration of VET as a direction of dropout intention accumulates linearly or fluctuates over time and how this evolution is different depending on the discipline and other academic, socio-economic and contextual factors. Likewise, it will be crucial to establish if the direction of dropout intention is a good proxy of the actual University-to-VET transfer.

The importance of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields in driving societal progress and economic growth cannot be overstated. These disciplines will certainly contribute in a crucial way to addressing global challenges such as climate change, healthcare advancements, and sustainable development (National Academy of Sciences, 2020). The demand for STEM professionals continues to grow rapidly, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2022) projecting a 10.8% increase in STEM occupations from 2021 to 2031, compared to 4.9% for non-STEM occupations, highlighting the need for a highly skilled workforce.

This shortage is particularly pronounced in Switzerland, where projections indicate a shortfall of approximately 40,000 Information and Communication Technology (ICT) specialists by 2030 (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 2022). Despite the growing importance and opportunities in STEM fields (accessible in Switzerland through vocational education and training as well as tertiary education), women remain significantly underrepresented in many STEM sectors, posing an additional challenge in meeting the increasing demand for skilled professionals. For example, in Switzerland, women currently represent only 17% of the ICT workforce (SECO, 2022).

Significant efforts have been made to increase female participation in STEM fields. In western Switzerland, the School of Engineering and Architecture at the University of Applied Sciences and Arts has been promoting science through a wide range of activities for young people of various age groups for many years. Several of these initiatives specifically target young girls, reflecting the school’s commitment to increasing the number of women in technical professions. However, female representation remains low, with a third of programs in this domain reporting an enrollment rate of less than 10%. This underscores the need to evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions and explore strategies to attract more women in STEM.

Using the Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT, Lent et al., 1994; 2019), this research aimed to assess the impact of STEM interventions implemented in Switzerland for girls aged between 11 and 17. More specifically, we examined whether these STEM interventions helped increase girls’ interest and aspirations for STEM careers, thereby evaluating their effectiveness.

Two types of STEM interventions were included:

1. A two-day internship program.

2. A ten-month mentoring program.

261 participants who took part in these STEM interventions completed the same questionnaire before (T0) and immediately after the intervention (T1) (Mean age = 13.39). For the mentoring program, an additional questionnaire was administered midway through the program (T0.5). Furthermore, 84 participants also completed a follow-up questionnaire (T2) one year after their participation. In parallel, the T0 questionnaire was also administered to a general population of secondary school girls (N = 562, Mean age = 15.81) to serve as a control group.

The questionnaire assessed not only interest and career aspirations but also STEM ability beliefs, self-efficacy, outcome expectations, social support, STEM stereotype awareness and endorsement, among other factors.

Findings indicated that girls in both STEM interventions had higher scores on most study variables compared to the general population of girls at the beginning of the intervention. The STEM intervention had a particularly positive impact on STEM self-efficacy and outcome expectations, which could help prevent a potential decline in STEM interests and career choices. However, it didn’t have a direct effect on STEM interest. One year after, the level of STEM self-efficacy and outcome expectations came back to the pre-intervention level, showing thus a curvilinear effect of such STEM interventions in the long-term. In conclusion, STEM interventions fostering long-term engagement and reinforcement programs should be implemented to sustain girls’ STEM self-efficacy and outcome expectations.

The school-to-work transition is a challenging task, in which adolescents have to navigate their own identity and decision-making within their social environment, opportunity structures and many other issues. Career orientation processes are complex and vary for each individual and social context. Nevertheless, the development of occupational aspirations typically marks a crucial starting point in shaping career choice and trajectories. From an early age, children start developing occupational aspirations in light of gender roles, social contexts and perceived social norms.

The formation of occupational aspirations, is thus embedded in manifold social contexts, including youths’ family and peers. Peers’ occupational aspirations and social valuation of certain occupations, both in friendship groups and in classroom contexts, may impact on social norms on which occupations are socially desirable. Furthermore, peers act as reference groups providing knowledge and serving as a standard of comparisonKlicken oder tippen Sie hier, um Text einzugeben.. Additionally, socialisation in the family, information and guidance by parents, as well as the parental educational background and parental expectations mark another meaningful social context with regards to occupations that adolescents could or should aspire, perhaps also with the motive to maintain or reach a certain social status.

At the same time, adolescents are guided by different career orientation activities supporting their career-decision-making. Increasing aspirations for a wider range of occupations is a key challenge of career guidance activities, both because young people's career aspirations are still stratified along specific social categories like gender and social status, and because young people in Europe have generally a limited field of professional aspirations . This is even more important as the shortage of skilled workers has become more severe in Germany due to a number of factors, particularly in light of demographic change and especially in the vocational education and training (VET) sector.

In this study, we combine both strands of research and examine how a short-term career choice intervention like vocational role models in the light of long-term influence of (different) social contexts students are embedded in, can have effects on enlarging students’ occupational aspirations.

Based on a large-scale role model intervention study, comprising 1,190 students in Germany, we use multi-level models for our analyses, accounting for the hierarchical data-structure of individuals being nested in classrooms.

(1) We first examine how peer and family contexts are associated with students’ occupational aspirations as key dimensions of social influence. We compare the effects of key dimensions of social influence, distinguishing between normative social influence from parents and peers at the baseline (RQ 1). Our results show that both peer and parental social contexts are related to students’ career aspirations, with descriptive peer norms and injunctive peer and parent norms being most relevant.

(2) Second, analysing pre/post change in the treatment group compared to the control group, we show that unique encounters with vocational role models in classroom, on average, contributes to increase occupational aspirations for the profession presented by the role models, extending previous empirical findings to the VET-context (RQ 2).

(3) Third, we examine whether and how role modelling effect varies by different social contexts students are embedded in (RQ 3), introducing a three-way interaction with the relevant social context variable. We do not find statistically significant interactions between social contexts and the role model intervention. Hence role model effects apply even in contexts that convey strong norms. Nevertheless, we find subtle patterns of role model effects being less pronounced when peers convey positive descriptive norms and high knowledge regarding an occupation and when peers’ self-efficacy is low.

Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: career decision-making, intervention, occupational aspirations, role models, social contexts