In Germany educational choices and the labour market are highly segregated by gender. The occupational segregation by gender reproduces inequality, as occupations that are traditionally female-dominated are usually characterised by lower income levels, lower professional prestige and limited career development opportunities. Consequently, occupational gender segregation contributes to income differences, unequal employment prospects and career opportunities between men and women.

A gender-atypical educational choice has the potential to reduce gender-specific inequalities. However, this only applies if the educational choice leads to a career in that field. Though, existing research show that people formally trained in professions where their gender is numerically underrepresented, tend to have a worse experience in the labour market. The few studies on this phenomenon focus mainly on academic careers, while there is little research on the employment trajectories of people with atypical vocational education and training (VET) qualifications. This is where our study comes in, analysing the further employment trajectories of men and women with a gender-atypical VET. Our two main research questions are:

1. How does the labour market entry of men and women with gender-atypical VET compare to the labour market entry of people with gender-typical or gender-neutral VET?

2. What are the reasons for men and women leaving their gender-atypical occupation in the course of their employment trajectory?

Our theoretical framework is based on the idea that training and employment trajectories are shaped by a range of personal, societal and institutional factors. We therefore look at institutional settings characterising occupations, gender stereotypes evolving in the work context and the individual’s negotiations between their own aspirations and the prevailing occupational conditions.

Method

We employ a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data analysis. The quantitative analysis uses the National Education Panels (NEPS) dataset and tracks the training and employment trajectories of 4,000 respondents, who completed their VET some years ago. Of these, around 300 graduates completed a gender-atypical VET programme. We examine the labour market integration, income development, probability of occupational change and the risk of becoming unemployment. We compare results between people with gender- atypical, gender-typical and gender-neutral VET.

The qualitative analysis is based on self-collected data (07/24 - ongoing) from:

a. 19 biographical-narrative interviews with female career changers from male-dominated STEM and trade professions and male career changers from nursing professions.

b. 15 interviews with experts on the gender-specific characteristics of occupations and the possible causes of career changes from gender-atypical occupations.

Preliminary results

Initial analysis of the interviews shows that in the course of their careers the respondents feel alienated by their occupation, experience difficult working conditions and encounter general structural problems. For men the poor working conditions in the care sector paired with few professional development opportunities and low professional prestige are the main reasons for their career exits. Also, they switch more frequently to higher prestige professions, following an additional episode of training. Correspondently, the NEPS data show that men with a gender-atypical vocational training have a higher tendency to enter further education phases. Furthermore, men are more likely to take up a new employment in an occupation that no longer corresponds with their training, but provides them with better career opportunities. Based on the interviews, women experience more (in)direct discrimination as well as structural barriers, especially once they become mothers. Also, women tend to be more negatively affected by a career change, as most of them move as unskilled workers into lower-paid jobs. The NEPS data also show, that women with gender-atypical VET are more likely to be precarious employment than men. Though, unlike men, they do not appear to switch to jobs in different fields more frequently.

Initial Vocational education and training (VET) plays a pivotal role in the initial socialisation and professional integration of young people into the workforce and broader society. Achieving an upper secondary level qualification is an educational policy goal that is generally regarded as essential for the successful socialisation and future economic engagement of young people. Early leaving from VET are therefore considered problematic for the young people concerned, companies and society. Research on this topic has grown considerably in the last ten years (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022). This applies primarily to questions about the structural determinants of drop-outs (Krötz & Deutscher, 2022), including the perspective of the apprentices themselves (Bosset et al., 2022) or the individual consequences for career development (Stadler & Schmid, 2016). Premature contract dissolutions are also an actively discussed topic at an international comparative level (CEDEFOP, 2016; Huismann & Hippach-Schneider, 2023).

While these studies have generated a rich body of knowledge on the background and consequences of VET drop-outs, there is hardly any reflection on the fact that this phenomenon has always been associated with the institutionalization of initial VET (e.g. cursory in Schmid, 2010, p. 73). VET drop-outs are an inherent and a historically persistent phenomenon of the dual VET system. However, the political problematization of this phenomenon seems to be subject to its own rationales. This paper explores the relation between the persistence of VET drop-outs and the shift in the political sensitivity with regard to this phenomenon. It asks: How persistent has the phenomenon of VET drop-outs been since the institutionalization of initial VET in the early 20th century? How does the development of this phenomenon relate to the political perception of the problem?

In order to provide answers to these questions, this paper focuses on the development of initial VET in Switzerland. It reconstructs the phenomenon of VET drop-outs through the lens of public-political administrations over a long period of time. Since (vocational) education policy and, in particular, social policy are largely the responsibility of the cantons, this study is based on the cases of three German-speaking Swiss cantons. It will reconstruct the numbers of VET premature contract dissolutions for a period from the early 1920s to the end of the 20th century. The reconstruction is possible due to the public accountability reports of the cantonal administrations, which have reported on their administrative actions with a high degree of consistency over time (Imlig, 2016). The three cantons under analysis (St. Gallen, Solothurn and Basel-Stadt) are empirically relevant as they have published corresponding data over long periods of time, show a large variance in the importance of dual VET at upper secondary level (from high to low) and differ from each other in terms of the structure of VET administration (Department of Industry and Commerce or Department of Education).

At the same time, the definition of these reports’ topics and focal points must be understood as a consequence of the (different) political sensitivities of the respective government and its administration. Theoretically spoken, the purpose of creating visibility through statistics is threefold: firstly, to describe social facts; secondly, to trigger observation; and thirdly, to assign meaning (Köhler, 2008). Accordingly, the definition of statistical categories and their level of detail, as well as possible changes in these statistical categories over time, can be used to make an analytical approach towards the questions about how a manageable phenomenon of VET drop-outs has become a political problem – and how this relationship has changed over time. The study thus provides a differentiated reflection into the historical development of this phenomenon of VET drop-outs, which is widely discussed today.

Research has paid scant attention to the trajectories of university dropout students once they leave the higher education system (Tieben, 2024). Failure to separate permanent dropout from temporary and/or transfer behaviours has often led a substantial overestimation of the dropout rate from higher education (Tinto, 1975). VET is increasingly considered as an alternative in the learning trajectories of university dropouts to obtain a post-secondary qualification (Hossler et al., 2012). While abundant studies on the profile and factors influencing degree transfer exist, few studies focus on VET as a destination after university dropout in Europe.

This paper presents a quantitative study that compares two transfer-out behaviours of first-year university students in Spain. The research question is: Which factors influence transfer to VET in contrast with transfer to another degree? This investigation is part of the research project “Assessment of risk factors and prevention of university dropout. Development of a good practice guide (ModAU-GBP)” led by the University of Oviedo with funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities [MCINN-23-PID2022-141290NB-I00] and EU funding on behalf of the Principality of Asturias [GRUPIN: ID2024/000713].

Building on prior studies, we first explored bivariate correlations between these two types of transfer and the following factors: sociodemographic (gender, age), family background (parents’ educational attainment) and academic variables (type of upper secondary education school, baccalaureate modality, reasons for choosing the degree, type of degree, and reasons for leaving the degree). Secondly, a predictive model was constructed by means of a Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLR), which identified the demographic, socioeconomic, family, personal, and academic trajectory variables that impact on dropout direction.

The sample comprised 500 first-year university students who dropped out within the first three years after entry and either transferred to another degree (lateral transfer) or to a VET course (reverse transfer) the year after dropping out. This sample belongs to a bigger sample (N=3719) collected by the Educational-Training Transition and Labour Insertion Survey [ETEFIL-19] dataset (INE, 2019).

The results show that different directions of drop-out intention stem from various factors, with academic performance, father’s education level, personal/family issues and gender having the largest significant effect. Even after controlling for other factors, men were significantly overrepresented in reverse transfer. Likewise, students whose father was a VET qualification holder were significantly more likely to enroll in a VET course after dropout. The odds of reverse transfer were also significantly increased when low academic performance or personal/family issues were reported as the main cause of dropout.

The model shows an acceptable fit (R² McF .304) and classification performance with more than 76% of cases correctly predicted in both dropout directions. Morover, it shows an acceptable balance between sensitivity (76.3%) and specificity (76.9%). The model predictions are reliable (accuracy 76.7%) and the AUC value (.854) reinforces the idea that the model is robust in terms of discrimination between classes.

We conclude that the choice of VET in case of university dropout is shaped by external pressures whereas degree transfer is more self-directed. Students who are not persisting in university may be more likely to enroll in VET if this option were made more visible by Higher Education Institutions. Reverse transfer should become a more frequent feature of Post Secondary Education pathway discussions from high school and specific information about non-linear post-secondary pathways and reverse transfer should be aimed at university students at the risk of dropout.