Conference Agenda

Culverts are critical stormwater management structures that prevent flooding and transportation disruptions. However the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events and changes in land use requires a comprehensive assessment of their hydraulic capacity and resilience. Therefore, uncertainty-aware methods are essential for predicting culvert failure risk and its potential impacts on the upstream communities. This study presents a probabilistic framework to assess the upstream flooding extent resulting from culvert failures across New York State. By considering a range of storm return periods, this framework explores how variations in rainfall event severity influence the cumulative flooded area, with a focus on the spatial distribution of failure impacts across culverts. The maximum tolerable discharge is primarily determined by the culvert size (and other hydraulic parameters of the culvert). A simplified inundation mapping method is then applied to assess the resulting flood extent associated with this discharge. This approach offers valuable and scalable insights into the relationship between rainfall events and upstream flooding due to culver failure, providing decision-makers with a probabilistic tool to evaluate the risk to culvert infrastructure. It also supports multi-objective optimization strategies for prioritizing maintenance and replacement based on failure probability and the potential impacts on communities.