Conference Agenda

More than 13.000 km of Dutch pressure mains are approaching or have already exceeded their expected operational lifetime, highlighting the need for better methods to assess pipeline condition and estimate remaining service life. This research developed a failure probability model for managing pressure mains, integrating physically-based models for mechanisms such as uneven soil subsidence, wall thickness reduction, and pressure fluctuations, with data-driven statistical models for third party excavation damage and defective air release valves. The model calculates failure probabilities based on the evaluation of 144 scenarios, which are combinations of possible future conditions. The application of the model on actual pressure pipelines confirmed its effectiveness in predicting failure risks and identifying dominant failure processes. By accurately assessing failure probabilities and locating vulnerable pipe sections, asset managers can make informed decisions about maintenance, rehabilitation, and inspections, thus optimizing the rehabilitation planning and extending pipeline service life. This model provides valuable insights into managing aging infrastructure.