Conference Agenda

The network of subsea data cables (SDC) transmits the majority of international data. After thirty years of fiber-optic SDC installation across the oceans, almost all coastal and island countries gained access to the only global fixed infrastructure network. While their essential role in intercontinental communication remains, the fibers within the cables are increasingly used as sensors that have the potential to monitor large parts of the water column. Specifically, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) technology enables existing fiber-optic cables to function as distributed hydrophones, detecting vibrations and movements along the seafloor. While primarily developed for monitoring cable integrity and environmental conditions, this technology also creates potential dual-use applications, allowing cables to detect vessels and monitor underwater activities – including military ones. This secondary capability raises important considerations for infrastructure resilience, as it provides early warning of potential damage while simultaneously introducing new security dimensions to subsea cable systems.

In this study, we seek to understand the key factors influencing the placement of SDCs. While earlier research proposed various explanations for the development of internet infrastructure, it often lacked statistical validation. Our analysis identifies the national-level conditions that either encouraged or discouraged decision-makers from constructing backbone accesses through subsea cable projects. Using regression analysis on a global dataset of country-year observations (n = 4916), we found that socio-economic factors (population size and economic performance), political conditions (state fragility and conflict), and geographic characteristics (seismic risk and proximity to neighboring territories) all had significant impacts on the number of existing and planned cable landings. These findings reveal that the global distribution this maritime infrastructure is skewed towards wealthy, populated, and more stable states, which puts them also in an advantaged position in sensing data access. This work can serve as a foundation for further research leveraging quantitative statistics to unveil hidden structures in the construction of material internet infrastructures and initiate a debate on the equitable regulation and distribution of sensing data.

The interest in the international community in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) is increasing steadily. Research is being conducted by startups and well-known companies in the field of reactor technology and development into the feasibility of SMRs and advanced nuclear fuels. The compact modules offer enhanced flexibility and accessibility for both new users and applications, rendering them particularly appealing to countries that have not yet adopted nuclear power generation or sites not suitable for traditional nuclear power plants. Simultaneously, novel challenges are emerging for the verification and safeguarding processes. New challenges to the safeguarding of SMRs originate from remote and isolated locations, novel fuels such as High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) or novel reactor concepts. They also arise from sites with multiple reactor units, which result in a higher inspection workload. The objective of this project is to develop technologies based on particle physics that can be used to complement existing safeguard technologies, thus minimising the workload of safeguard inspectors. This involves the reconciliation of the requirements of facility operators and policymakers with the technical possibilities.

One potential solution to support inspectors is the deployment of antineutrino detectors in outdoor locations, outside of the immediate vicinity of the reactor facility. Antineutrinos are created in fission processes in large quantities during the operation of a nuclear reactor and have the capacity to leave not only the reactor module but also the surrounding containment structure. The capability for external detection enables the detector to function as a safeguard monitoring device for a broad range of SMR types and configurations, including subsequent integration. In this study, we analyse how the energy spectrum and other interesting parameters of detected antineutrinos can provide information on the isotopic content of the nuclear fuel. In addition, reactor simulations for a representative SMR site with multiple units are conducted to investigate the changes in the composition of the nuclear fuel over a fuel cycle and beyond. We also examine how these changes affect the antineutrino spectrum. It will be further demonstrated that antineutrino detectors offer the potential for effectively monitoring the operational status of multi-unit sites. A central aspect of this analysis is the impact of shutting down individual units, a possible scenario for clandestine plutonium extraction, on the resulting antineutrino spectrum. This is also of interest in scenarios involving the diversion of nuclear material from a single module. The detection of reactor antineutrinos thus permits the independent monitoring of reactors, independent of the facility operator, and the verification of information provided by the operator.

As other countries, China relies on the expansion of nuclear energy to reach less dependence on coal, China relies on the expansion of nuclear energy, including fast breeder reactors. These reactors can operate in a mode in which consumption of fissile material is less than the production. The Chinese sodium-cooled reactor CFR-600 is planned with an electrical capacity of 600MW. However, it is capable of producing a significant amount of weapons-grade plutonium in the blankets as well. The first CFR-600 may already be operational, the second is planned for 2026. There are concerns that China may use breeder reactors for military purposes, as it vastly expands its nuclear weapons program. How much and how fast the Chinese warhead inventory can grow depends on the additional fissile material stockpiles it can produce. In light of this development and the current global political circumstances, we present results on the CFR-600 plutonium production based on burnup simulations using OpenMC.

The insights derived from the simulation are utilized to facilitate a more profound examination of the broader political implications associated with China's escalating nuclear armament. Although China reportedly ceased the production of weapons-grade plutonium in the early 1990s, it stopped voluntarily reporting its plutonium stockpiles to the IAEA in 2017. The results of this simulation carry significant political ramifications, particularly concering the interpretation of China’s opague and expanding nuclear posture. This concern is amplified by U.S. intelligence reports revealing the construction of hundreds of new missile silos in China’s north-central desert, potentially capable of housing large numbers of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which are the most important delivery systems for nuclear weapons. If the CFR-600 reactors are indeed being used for military purposes, this development, along with the ongoing nuclear modernization and expansion of military infrastructure, would provide further indications of a more assertive and ambitious chinese nuclear posture, in contrast to its historically passive one.

Since the 1950s, numerous applications for muography have been identified, ranging from the study of ancient and modern structures to volcanology and various fields of industry. In recent years, muons have also been investigated as a potential method for nuclear verification.

As part of the natural cosmic radiation, high-energy muons can penetrate metres of dense material. While passing through matters, muons lose their energy, undergo multiple Coulomb scattering and can be absorbed. The nature of these interactions allows the use of radiographic density methods. Recent research in the field of international nuclear safeguards has shown that muography is potentially suitable for imaging both nuclear materials in shielded containers and hidden structures in underground facilities. In 2024, a simulation study was carried out to investigate whether muon radiography could identify unknown features such as tunnels that had not been declared prior to the construction of a geological repository for spent fuel [1]. A year earlier a field trial was carried out to investigate the ability of muon tomography to re-verify spent fuel loaded into a shielded cask [2]. Although the research projects are still ongoing, it has already been shown that muography has great potential as an imaging technique for imaging hidden underground structures and detecting shielded nuclear materials. While both projects are aimed at verifying the peaceful use of nuclear materials and facilities in the context of international safeguards, muography also holds promise for verifying nuclear disarmament. In this context, a recent Canadian research project investigated the ability of muon tomography to verify the dismantling of a nuclear weapon while protecting sensitive information about the exact structure of the weapon [3].

In summary, the research projects show that, in addition to the possibilities offered by muography, there are still certain limitations in the measurement of the target material that need to be addressed. Therefore, muography should be further investigated as a potential technique to support nuclear verification activities in the field of nuclear safeguards and the disarmament verification regime through further research to improve the detector system and the analysis algorithms. It is clear, however, that such a technology used in compliance with disarmament treaties will have to meet additional requirements compared to nuclear safeguards, such as the need to protect sensitive information and meet safety obligations.

[1] L. F. Thompson et al., "The Use of Muon Tomography in Safeguarding Nuclear Geological Disposal Facilities”, Journal of Advanced Instrumentation in Science, vol. 2022, May 2022.

[2] G. Bonomi et al., "Muon Tomography for Reverification of Spent Fuel Casks (the MUTOMCA Project)”, Journal of Advanced Instrumentation in Science, vol. 2024, no. 1, Mar. 2024.

[3] D. Pérez-Loureiro et al., "Canadian Technology Demonstration of the Passive Techniques: Muon, Neutron, and Gamma-Rays for Nuclear Disarmament Verification”, Proceedings of the INMM & ESARDA Joint Annual Meeting, 2021.

To ensure the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, member states to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons that are not listed as nuclear weapon states agreed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) applying safeguards measures on fissile material and nuclear facilities. This is also relevant for nuclear waste management during interim storage and deep-geological disposal. Here, safeguards measures such as seals, closed-circuit television (CCTV) cameras, radiation detectors or laser scans are applied to containers with spent nuclear fuel and other nuclear waste to ensure the containment and surveillance of this material. Similar measures are applied to the facilities themselves to verify the design information of the built structures. These monitoring systems over the past have grown in complexity, nowadays produce large amounts of data and have become more and more interconnected and automated. At the same time, digital twin concepts increasingly gain popularity in industry contexts while enabling technologies such as high-performance computing and machine learning have become more easily available.

With this poster, we will present a project that aims to explore the possibilities and limitations of digital twins for safeguards in nuclear waste management. We will sketch our approach to modeling a safeguards inspection and monitoring system and the data traces, inspection data and operator declarations relevant to this. We will discuss the PostgreSQL database implementation of this model capable of tracking the system state over time and the Python API that can be used to connect different applications to the database. This includes a Python-powered Dash app as Graphical User Interface (GUI), visualizing the system state from an operator and inspectorate perspective, as well as software to simulate different physical aspects, such as neutron and gamma radiation as well as light detection and ranging (LiDAR). In the end, we will outline the planned extension of this prototype software to a larger digital twin framework, where real measurement data can be processed and analyzed alongside the simulated data, e.g. for experimental design optimization and anomaly detection. Through that, this work aims at supporting and facilitating remote monitoring, the development of new safeguards techniques, as well as education and training.

The role of weapon systems with autonomous functions (AWS) shapes warfare in Ukraine and increasingly influences will European defence planning. However, norms and safeguards for human control (HC) have not yet been established. International organisations, as emphasized in the UN GGE guidelines, IEEE Standards Association, and REAIM Blueprint for Action in 2024, as well as defence firms, anticipate HC as central requirement (Riebe et al., 2024). Enhancing human control is a universal challenge in the field of human-computer interaction (HCI), especially in security-critical areas with increasing levels of automation, e.g., in medicine. Thus, this poster aims to present and invite the audience to discuss the design of our project "Designing for Agency", which aims to bridge the gap between HCI and arms control research and provide recommendations for safeguards through iterative interdisciplinary knowledge transfer and expert workshops. The project aims to research approaches, and best practices to enhance HC from the perspective of human agency in HCI while considering the domain context of AWS, arms control research and practice.

Additive Manufacturing (AM), a technology that allows for the generation of objects layer by layer following a 3D digital design, has not only captivated hobbyists' fascination over the last decades but has become increasingly researched for and integrated into manufacturing processes. Coined 3D-printing, AM allows for creating complex geometries and on-demand manufacturing of items previously impossible to make with subtractive manufacturing technologies or demanding lengthy and expensive lead times. Also, the military technology sector has caught up to the technology, aiming to translate its advantages into increased military effectiveness. Next to industrial actors developing applications aimed at improving the weight-to-performance ratios of military goods and creating solutions to optimise maintenance through in-situ and on-demand printing, among others, more actors have also advanced military technology with AM; those range from individuals, associations, to armed groups and right-wing terrorists. Examples include the extensive use of 3D-printing in Ukraine within the scope of their drone warfare and the online proliferation of design files to “print” firearms. I want to present a poster at the SPS25 that illustrates these technological developments, as detailed in a forthcoming PRIF report of mine. Showcasing and analysing the technical realities and limits is a first step in understanding AM´s potential risks and impact on political violence. The report details both applications of industrial and various other actors and how the technology is used by armed forces and applied in conflict settings. While AM is a wide field, this presentation would focus on military technology, particularly approaching it from an angle more extensive than a sole focus on weaponry. With the presentation of my findings at the SPS25, I would like to start a dialogue with the arms control community about control of this technology, which stands as an example for democratised and diffused emerging technology. As such, the discussions around what if an emerging technology becomes accessible can centre around the reality and consequences of de facto realities.

Metaphors are not simply rhetorical embellishments. Instead, they serve as cognitive structures that influence the perception, discourse, and actions about political realities. In international dialogues around artificial intelligence (AI), the prevalent metaphor of a ‘AI (arms) race’ has surfaced as a significant framing mechanism. This paradigm, grounded on Cold War narratives like the space race and arms race, portrays AI development as a critical, zero-sum contest for global supremacy (e.g., Kania 2018; Roff 2019; Diehl and Lambach 2022). Influential figures, like Elon Musk's dire cautions and Vladimir Putin's claim that AI dominance will dictate world authority, have solidified this perspective (Hull et al. 2022). The race metaphor has indeed stimulated investment and innovation; yet, it fosters urgency, competition, and confidentiality, so compromising long-term partnership and ethical supervision. Academics have increasingly warned that this framing may lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy, as belief in racial dynamics encourages competitive behaviour even without real conflict (Cave and ÓhÉigeartaigh 2018; Houser and Raymond 2020; Ulnicane 2023).

This contribution advocates for a redefinition of our understanding of AI progress. We commence by providing a theoretical framework for comprehending the function of metaphor in International Relations (IR), delineating their cognitive roles, strategic applications, and political ramifications, in conjunction with an exposition of our analytical methodology. We subsequently examine the progression of the ‘race’ metaphor, transitioning from the classical sports race to the arms race, and ultimately to the modern AI arms race, highlighting both consistencies and changes in metaphorical focus. This genealogy elucidates the competitive rationale underlying contemporary discourse and its constraints in directing ethical and collaborative AI governance.

We propose the metaphor of a ‘AI treasure hunt’ as an alternative. Unlike the race's focus on speed, scarcity, and individual triumph, the treasure hunt metaphor highlights curiosity, exploration, communal knowledge, and collective advantage. It redefines AI as a worldwide endeavour focused on revealing latent potential, tackling urgent issues, and constructing systems that emphasise societal well-being. This metaphor is applied to three key AI technopoles: the United States, the European Union, and China, illustrating how recontextualising AI development in each setting can unveil novel discursive and policy opportunities. By extracting essential metaphorical elements and applying them comparatively, we demonstrate how the treasure hunt framework more effectively corresponds with the principles of responsibility, inclusivity, and long-term thinking.

We contend that altering the metaphors employed to conceptualise AI progress is not solely a matter of semantics but rather a strategic endeavour. The frameworks we select influence both creativity and behaviour. By adopting the metaphor of an AI treasure hunt, we aim to encourage a more collaborative, ethically sound, and progressive perspective on the future of global AI competition.

This work introduces a novel thermodynamic framework for analysing Disruption Tolerant Networks (DTNs) through statistical physics and percolation theory. By mapping peer-to-peer communication dynamics onto a one-dimensional binary state (Ising spin) model, we establish a mathematical foundation for understanding collective behaviour in decentralised communication systems. In our approach, communication links are effectively modelled as spin states (up or down, active or inactive), with social activity serving as an analogue to temperature in traditional thermodynamic systems.

The research applies Renormalisation Group (RG) theory to systematically investigate phase transitions and critical phenomena in DTN connectivity patterns. Through this formalism, we derive expressions for correlation length, connectivity, and system entropy, revealing fundamental relationships between social interaction patterns and network resilience. Our analysis demonstrates that the correlation length of DTN communication exhibits exponential scaling with decreasing social restrictions, highlighting how network effectiveness is intrinsically linked to the level of social activity permitted by crisis conditions.

The approach provides insights into different centralised network disruption scenarios, particularly relevant for crisis communication strategies. We identify two major application contexts: direct network disruption (such as cyber incidents as part of hybrid warfare) and indirect network disruption (such as natural disasters like earthquakes and floods). In scenarios with maintained social activity, DTNs can provide crucial communication infrastructure not reliant on network servers. However, in cases of strictly limited social activity (e.g., pandemic lockdowns, floods), the advantages of DTNs are neutralised, potentially leaving communities more dependent on traditional centralised infrastructure.

To address this vulnerability, we propose a dual-pronged approach leveraging both human and technological solutions. This includes equipping civil defence staff with high-capacity ICT devices, setting up network beacons in strategic places or deploying autonomous drone swarms to serve as semi-centralised instances for ground-based communication.

While DTNs offer alternatives to centralised infrastructure, their effectiveness requires careful consideration of technical requirements and social activity. The mathematical approach yields primarily qualitative insights in this initial investigation but establishes a strong basis for future quantitative analyses. These findings contribute to the broader understanding of complex dynamic systems in communication networks while offering concrete implications for resilient communication infrastructure design in challenging environments.