Fostering the future of finance
through conversations and collaborations
between academics and practitioners.
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
|
Session Overview |
| Session | ||
Session 3.24: AI Boost and Demographic Bust: Is “Hi-Tech Feudalism” inevitable?
| ||
| Presentations | ||
AI Boost and Demographic Bust: Is “Hi-Tech Feudalism” inevitable? Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Israel We develop an Overlapping Generations (OLG) model with a nested CES production function and endogenous fertility to analyze the dual impact of two mega-trends: the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and demographic decline. Our analysis identifies two paths to economic instability: an "Edge of Stability" driven by strong human-AI complementarity, and a "Wage-Fertility Spiral" where high wages suppress population growth. AGI-Labor complementarity in aging economies leads to a paradox of soaring per-capita GDP amidst stagnating aggregate output, while substitutability leads to “High-Tech Feudalism”, where a few own most of the wealth. Extending the model to an open economy reveals that global capital flows and migration act as powerful stabilizers, transforming domestic challenges into questions of international policy. We evaluate a portfolio of fiscal responses and conclude that an optimal strategy combines internationally coordinated AGI taxes with domestic policies focused on migration management, human capital investment, and social cohesion. | ||
