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Daily Overview |
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Num2: Numerical Mathematics and Scientific Computing Location: A703 Session Chair: Thomas Carraro | |
| Presentation 2 | |
Spatiotemporal modeling of Wolbachia persistence in Aedes aegypti populations 1: MPI Magdeburg, Germany; 2: Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of several arboviruses of major public health concern such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. Wolbachia is a symbiotic bacterium that is transmitted maternally and induces cytoplasmic incompatibility. Wolbachia suppresses replication of Aedes aegypti. We present a spatiotemporal model that characterizes the spatial distribution and persistence of Aedes aegypti mosquito populations after the release of Wolbachia-infected individuals. The model is formulated as a coupled system of reaction–diffusion equations with mechanisms of imperfect transmission, spatial heterogeneity and mosquito movement. The model describes invasion thresholds, stability conditions and qualitative behavior for different parameters. Numerical simulations are performed to address the influence of release size and spatial distribution on establishment success, strain-dependent conditions that maximize long-term persistence and the interplay between environmental heterogeneity and infection dynamics over extended time horizons. Our results provide some quantitative guidance for designing sustainable biological control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue. | |



