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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Daily Overview

Session

CP12: Sheep & Goats - 10 min talks
Location: Lecture Theatre 2
Session Chair: Vern Bowles, The University of Melbourne
Session Chair: Nichola Calvani, The University of Sydney

Presentation 3

High-Resolution Climate Modelling of Fasciolosis Risk in Australia: A One Health Early-Warning Framework

Rana M. Athar Ali¹, Mark A. Stevenson¹, Leah Tyrell², Nichola E.D. Calvani³, Travis Beddoe⁴, Grant Rawlin⁵, Terry Spithill⁴, Neil D. Young¹, Abdul Jabbar¹

1: Melbourne Veterinary School, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; 2: The Mackinnon Project, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; 3: Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; 4: Department of Ecological, Plant and Animal Sciences, La Trobe University, Victoria, Australia; 5: Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Agriculture, Victoria, Australia

Fasciolosis, caused by the liver fluke Fasciola hepatica, is a climate-sensitive parasitic disease that threatens livestock productivity and farm profitability, with broader implications for food security, rural livelihoods, and sustainable food systems. This study aimed to quantify historical trends and project future fasciolosis risk across Victoria under changing climate conditions. High-resolution (5 km²) climate data were retrieved for 40,504 grid points across Victoria to validate a Growing Degree Days (GDD) model for estimating fasciolosis risk over the past 50 years (1975–2024) and to project future risk centred at 2050 and 2090 under medium (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) representative concentration pathways. Linear regression analysis demonstrated a strong relationship between observed fasciolosis prevalence and modelled risk values (R² = 0.94, p < 0.003). Historical analyses revealed substantial interannual variability, with consistently higher risk in eastern Victoria, followed by western and northern regions. Under future climate scenarios, risk increased spatially by up to two-fold in Barwon and three-fold in the Great South Coast, particularly under the 2090 RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings provide spatially explicit evidence to support climate-responsive surveillance, risk-based control strategies, and integrated animal health and environmental policy development.