Future Finance Fest (3f)
Amsterdam, The Netherlands • 5 June 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
|
Daily Overview |
| Session | ||
Session 508
| ||
| Presentations | ||
Fast Flow in Slow-Moving Market: Leveraged Loan Fund Flow and Real Activity 1University of Lausanne; 2Swiss Finance Institute Credit spreads are leading indicators of real activity but only capture pricing information. I show that quantity-based indicators, specifically net flow into open-end funds primarily investing in leveraged loans, provide additional predictive content. Using monthly indicators and conditioning on a broad set of controls, credit spreads reduce out-of-sample forecast errors in the next two years by up to 9%, while loan fund flow further reduces these errors by up to 7%. A dynamic corporate investment model with a slow-moving financing capacity state, which lags behind fast-moving fund flows, explains this price-quantity timing asymmetry in the forecasting power. | ||