Future Finance Fest (3f)
Amsterdam, The Netherlands • 5 June 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Session 406
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| Presentations | ||
Context-Dependent Memory and Disagreement: Evidence from Household Inflation Expectations Singapore Management University, Singapore This paper documents a novel cognitive source of disagreement: heterogeneous recall of past experiences due to context-dependent memory contributes to divergence in household beliefs. The intuition is illustrated through a stylized model à la Wachter and Kahana (2024). Empirically, using local weather as contextual cues, I construct a measure of memory-based disagreement in U.S. households’ inflation expectations and show that it explains survey-based disagreement across forecast horizons, with stronger effects when disagreement is driven by unusual contexts. The findings align with established memory regularities, generalize to households in other countries, and remain robust across alternative specifications. I further show that heightened disagreement arising from heterogeneous memory weakens monetary policy transmission. These results highlight a previously overlooked cognitive friction shaping disagreement in households’ expectations. | ||