Veranstaltungsprogramm

<p>Indonesia's 2024 general election offered a telling illustration: the candidate pair with the highest digital advertising spend across Meta platforms secured the lowest vote share nationally, while broker networks continued distributing cash and goods in the final days before polling. The gap between the reach of digital campaigns and the persistence of transactional politics has not been resolved in the literature, and this study takes it as its starting point. Specifically, it asks: when does digital political communication actually move voter choice, and when does the material logic of broker-mediated exchange take over?</p>

<p>The study works within the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) framework, treating voter decision-making as an evaluative process with distinct stages and not a direct input-output mechanism. Four constructs operate at the stimulus stage: Integrated Political Marketing Communication (IPMC), measuring the strategic consistency of messages across digital and traditional platforms; Key Opinion Leaders (KOL), covering influencers, religious figures, and local intermediaries who carry and modify political messages within their networks; Political Identity (PID), reflecting the extent to which partisan and communal ties predispose voters toward particular candidates; and Voter Skepticism (VS), measuring distrust of political actors and campaign claims. Informed by Social Exchange Theory and Motivated Reasoning Theory, Candidate Branding (CB) and Perceived Political Integrity Beliefs (PIB) function as organism-stage filters that process incoming stimuli before electoral behavior occurs.</p>

<p>What distinguishes this study is its treatment of context as an analytical variable and not merely a control. Brokerage clientelism is modeled across two dimensions: Social Assistance (SA), which measures voter assessments of whether pre-election welfare distributions were fair, well-timed, and need-based; and Perceived Political Intervention through Brokerage Clientelism (PIBC), which measures the extent to which voters encountered broker-delivered material inducements via personal networks. The central argument is that both dimensions condition whether CB and PIB perceptions carry through to vote choice, or whether transactional considerations take precedence.</p>

<p>Data will be gathered through a structured survey of 600 registered voters across DKI Jakarta, West Java, and Banten. Analysis uses PLS-SEM with a two-stage procedure for second-order constructs and product-indicator interaction terms for moderation testing.</p>

<p>The paper speaks primarily to scholars of digital participation and electoral politics in contexts where party institutionalization is weak and broker networks remain electorally relevant.</p>